Response of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Yellow Sea over the past 400 a
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Abstract: Quantitative identification of long-term changes in the abundance of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea is particularly important for understanding evolutionary processes of the Yellow Sea ecosystem. Unfortunately, the driving mechanisms of climate variability on the anchovy are still unclear due to the lack of long-term observational data. In this study, we used the fish scale deposition rate in the central Yellow Sea to reconstruct the time series of the anchovy stock over the past 400 a. On this basis, we further explored the impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the anchovy. Our results show that the anchovy stock is positively correlated with the PDO on a decadal time scale. In addition, anchovy abundance was relatively high during 1620–1860 AD (the Little Ice Age, LIA), though in a state of constant fluctuation; anchovy abundance maintained at a relatively low level after ~1860 AD. In particular, followed by overfishing since the 1980s, the anchovy stock has declined sharply. Based on these findings, we infer that fluctuations of the anchovy stock may be regulated by basin-scale “atmosphere–ocean” interactions. Nevertheless, the role of overfishing should not be ignored.
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Figure 1. The map of the study area in the Yellow Sea. Arrows with solid lines represent the ocean currents; warm currents (red) include Kuroshio Current (KC), Tsushima Warm Current (TSWC), and Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC); cold current (blue) is Yellow Sea Coastal Current (YSCC). Black triangles show the sampling Sites 10594, 10694 and 10794. Black dashed lines show boundaries between seas.
Figure 2. Distribution of fish scale deposition rate (SDR) along the sediment cores and the mean for three cores in the Yellow Sea during the period 1620–2005 AD.
Figure 3. The difference between three cores in the mean fish scale deposition rate (SDR) with standard error in the Yellow Sea during the period 1620–2005 AD. LIA is the abbreviation of the Little Ice Age (1620–1860 AD).
Figure 4. The relationship between the wintering anchovy stock estimated from acoustic investigations (Jin et al., 2001; Zhao, 2006) and fish scale deposition rate (SDR) in sediment cores in the Yellow Sea from 1985 AD to 2005 AD. The straight line is the fitted linear regression between the wintering anchovy stock and the SDR and was used to reconstruct the historical anchovy stock.
Figure 5. The reconstructed anchovy stock in the Yellow Sea from 1620 AD to 2005 AD. The red line indicates the mean values.
Figure 6. Relationship of the reconstructed anchovy stock in the Yellow Sea with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDOI) (data were obtained from Shen et al. (2006)). The fifth Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF 5) with 76 a period by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition during the 1620–1998 AD (red vertical axis) was used (r=0.29, p=0.07, n=38). The raw data of PDOI during 1620–1998 AD were adopted.
Figure 7. Relationship of the reconstructed anchovy stock in the Yellow Sea with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDOI) (data were obtained from Shen et al. (2006)). The fifth Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF 5) with 80 a and 70 a period by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1620−1860 AD) and after the LIA (1860-1998 AD) was used, respectively.
Figure 8. Comparison of the reconstructed anchovy stock with environmental variables in the Yellow Sea. a. The data of Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDOI) were obtained from Shen et al. (2006); b. the Aleutian Low Pressure index (ALPI) from Surry and King (2015); c. the East Asian Winter Monsoon index (EAWMI) from Zhang et al. (2013); d. the winter (average in January–March) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) with a resolution of 1°×1° (latitude×longitude) for the range 32°–37°N, 120°–125°E from Rayner et al. (2006).; e. the data of biomarkers in the Core 10694 from Xing et al. (2009). The orange lines indicate the selected Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) with different periods by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition. The brassicasterol content (Bra) could be used to represent diatom productivity (primary productivity), and the cholesterol content (Cho) for zooplankton abundance (secondary productivity). The gray rectangles represent periods when the anchovy stock dominated.
Figure 9. Schematic illustrating the potential “atmosphere–ocean” pattern based on a bottom-up hypothesis for anchovy stock in the Yellow Sea. Closed and open arrows indicate direct and indirect effects, respectively. PDO is the abbreviation of Pacific Decadal Oscillation; ALP, Aleutian Low Pressure; EAWM, East Asian Winter Monsoon; SST, sea surface temperature; MLD, mixed layer depth.
Table 1. Spearman’s correlation coefficients in scale deposition rate between sites of the Yellow Sea from 1620 AD to 2005 AD (n=39)
Site 10694 10794 10594 0.66**** 0.63**** 10694 0.58*** Note: Statistically significant correlations are indicated: ***, p<0.001; ****, p<0.000 1. 
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Table 2. Pearson’s correlation coefficients between anchovy stock, climate variables and biogeochemical proxies from 1860 AD to 1950 AD (n=10)
PDOI
(IMF 5)ALPI
(IMF 5)EAWMI
(IMF 6)SSTA
(IMF 6)Detrended
lgBraDetrended
lgChoAnchovy stock 0.81** 0.68 0.52 −0.29 0.18 0.47 PDOI (IMF 5) 0.98** 0.57 −0.26 0.20 0.46 ALPI (IMF 5) 0.65 0.11 0.26 0.82 EAWMI (IMF 6) −0.90** −0.49 −0.44 SSTA (IMF 6) 0.41 0.63 Detrended lgBra 0.75* Note: PDOI is abbreviation of Pacific Decadal Oscillation index; ALPI, Aleutian Low Pressure index; EAWMI, East Asian Winter Monsoon index; SSTA, sea surface temperature anomaly. Bra represents brassicasterol content; Cho, cholesterol content. IMF n, nth Intrinsic Mode Function by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition. Statistically significant correlations are indicated: *, p<0.05; **, p<0.01.
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