Impact of Arctic Oscillation on cloud radiative forcing and September sea ice retreat
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Abstract: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has important effects on the sea ice change in terms of the dynamic and thermodynamic processes. However, while the dynamic processes of AO have been widely explored, the thermodynamic processes of AO need to be further discussed. In this paper, we use the fifth state-of-the-art reanalysis at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) from 1979 to 2020 to investigate the relationship between AO and the surface springtime longwave (LW) cloud radiative forcing (CRF), summertime shortwave (SW) CRF in the Arctic region (65°−90°N). In addition, the contribution of CRF induced by AO to the sea ice change is also discussed. Results indicate that the positive (negative) anomalies of springtime LW CRF and summertime SW CRF are generally detected over the Arctic Ocean during the enhanced positive (negative) AO phase in spring and summer, respectively. Meanwhile, while the LW (SW) CRF generally has a positive correlation with AO index (AOI) in spring (summer) over the entire Arctic Ocean, this correlation is statistically significant over 70°−85°N and 120°W−90°E (i.e., region of interest (ROI)) in both seasons. Moreover, the response of CRF to the atmospheric conditions varies in spring and summer. We also find that the positive springtime (summertime) AOI tends to decrease (increase) the sea ice in September, and this phenomenon is especially prominent over the ROI. The sensitivity study among sea ice extent, CRF and AOI further reveals that decreases (increases) in September sea ice over the ROI are partly attributed to the springtime LW (summertime SW) CRF during the positive AOI. The present study provides a new pattern of AO affecting sea ice change via cloud radiative effects, which might benefit the sea ice forecast improvement.
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Key words:
- Arctic /
- Arctic Oscillation /
- cloud radiative forcing /
- sea ice retreat
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Figure 1. Time series of seasonal mean Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) in spring (March, April and May, MAM) (a) and summer (June, July and August, JJA) (b) during 1979−2020. Solid lines in the middle are the mean AOIs, the upper and lower dashed lines denote the standard deviations of AOI during 1979−2020, and black squares and triangles represent the EN and EP phases, respectively.
Figure 2. Springtime and summertime cloud raliative forcing (CRF) anomalies during different AO phases from 1979 to 2020 over the Arctic Ocean. a. Longwave (LW) CRF anomalies in spring during enhance negative (EN); b. LW CRF anomalies in spring during enhance positive (EP) phase; c. shortwave (SW) CRF anomalies in summer during EN; d. SW CRF anomalies in summer during EP.
Figure 3. Pearson correlation coefficient between springtime longware cloud raditive forcing (CRF) anomaly and Aritc Oscillation index (AOI) (a), as well as between summertime shortwove CRF anomaly and AOI (b) from 1979 to 2020 over the Arctic Ocean. The regin of interest is outlined in black lines. Black dots mark the regions where statistical significance at 90% confidence level or greater.
Figure 4. Regressions of lower tropospheric static stability (LTS) anomalies from 1979 to 2020 on Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) in spring (a) and summer (b). The region of interest is outlined in black lines. Regions marked by black dots are statistically significant at the 90% level or greater.
Figure 5. Vertical profile of regression values of cloud fraction (CF) and cloud total water content (CTC) on the AOI in spring (a) and summer (b) over the region of interest. The vertical line in a denotes the regression value is zero.
Figure 6. Time series of sea ice extent (SIE) anomalies in September (solid line) and mean Arctic Oscillation index (AOI, dashed line) over the region of interest from 1979 to 2020 in spring (a) and summer (b). R is the correlation coefficient between AOI and SIE anomalies (statistically significant at the 90% level or greater).
Figure 7. Regression of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies in September from 1979 to 2020 on the springtime (a) and summertime (b) Aritic Oscillation index, respectively. The region of interest is outlined in black lines. Regions marked by black dots are statistically significant at the 90% level or greater.
Table 1. The regression slopes among SIE, CRF and AOI in spring and summer, respectively
Season ΔSIE:ΔAOI/
km2ΔSIE:ΔCRF/
(km2·(W·m−2)−1)ΔCRF:ΔAOI/
(W·m−2)Spring −148.43 −0.02 1099.72 Summer 217.49 0.01 9693.93 Note: CRF refers to longwave CRF in spring and shortwave CRF in summer. Results marked in bold are statistically significant at the 90% level or greater. 
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Table 2. The standard correlation (standard R), partial correlation after removing the effects of CRF (partial R) between September SIE and AOI
Season Standard R Partial R Spring −0.34 −0.31 Summer 0.29 0.10 Note: Results marked in bold are statistically significant at the 90% level or greater.
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