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Abstract: Subduction process is a dynamical bridge for the exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean water, which is regarded as a central proxy for the ocean climate studies. Given its key indicator in climate signals, it is of importance to examine the ability of a model to simulate the global subduction rate before investigating the climate dynamics. In this paper, we evaluated the ability of 21 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the subduction rate. In general, the simulation ability of the models to the subduction climatology is better than that to the long-term variation trend. Based on the comprehensive analysis of climatology distribution and long-term trend of the subduction rate, GISS-E2-1-G performs better in reproducing the subduction rate climatology and IPSL-CM6A-LR can simulate positive long-term trend for both the global mean subduction rate and the lateral induction term in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region. However, it is still challenging to capture both the distribution characteristics of the subduction climatology and the long-term temporal trend for the 21 CMIP6 models. In addition, the model results demonstrate that, the ACC area is the major region contributing to the long-term trend of the global mean subduction rate. The analysis in this paper indicates that the poor simulation ability of reproducing the long-term trend of global mean subduction rate might be attributed to the ocean dynamics, for example, the zonal velocity at the bottom mixed layer and zonal gradient of mixed layer depth.
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Key words:
- subduction rate /
- CMIP6 /
- climatology /
- long-term trend
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Figure 1. The mixed layer depth for Argo in spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c) and winter (d); e−h are the same as a−d, but for Simple Ocean Data Assimilation results; i−l are the results for multi-model ensemble mean.
Figure 2. Taylor diagram for mixed layer depth in four seasons for the 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and multi-model ensemble mean (MME) with Argo (a) and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) (b) data.
Figure 3. Zonal averaged mixed layer depth (MLD) during the spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c) and winter (d) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data, multi-model ensemble mean (MME), as well as the reference datasets.
Figure 4. Subduction rate climatology of Argo data (a) and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data (b).
Figure 5. Subduction rate climatology for each Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model.
Figure 6. Taylor diagram of subduction rate climatology simulation of the 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) with Argo (a) and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) (b) data.
Figure 7. Subduction rate climatology of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble mean (MME) (a), the bias relative to Argo (b) and the bias relative to Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) (c).
Figure 8. Vertical pumping (a) and lateral induction (b) climatology of Argo; c and d are the corresponding results of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data. The value in the top right-hand corner represents its contribution to subduction rate.
Figure 9. Vertical pumping climatology for each Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model. The value in the top right-hand corner represents its corresponding contribution to subduction rate.
Figure 10. Lateral induction climatology for each Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model. The value in the top right-hand corner represents its corresponding contribution to subduction rate.
Figure 11. Taylor diagrams for vertical pumping and lateral induction simulations for the 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and multi-model ensemble mean (MME) with Argo (a) and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) (b) data.
Figure 12. The global mean subduction rate time anomaly of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data, ORA-S3 data, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and multi-model ensemble mean (MME).
Figure 13. Spatial distribution of the linear trend of the subduction rate from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data (a) and multi-model ensemble mean (MME) (b). The black dots indicate that the area passed the 95% significance test.
Figure 14. The subduction rate time trend distributions of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The black dots indicate that the area passed the 95% significance test.
Figure 15. The latitude bands analyzed in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region (a), the black bold lines indicate the boundaries; time variation curves of the subduction rate, vertical pumping term and lateral induction term in the ACC region for the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data (b).
Figure 16. Time variation of the lateral induction term (TVLI) for the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The solid line shows the SODA data results, the dotted line shows the model simulation results, and the value in the upper left corner is the linear slope of the model result.
Figure 17. Abnormal time variation curves of the zonal velocity at the bottom mixed layer (BML) (a), the meridional velocity at the BML (b), the zonal gradient of the mixed layer depth (MLD) (c) and the meridional gradient of the MLD for the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and multi-model ensemble mean (MME) in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region during September (d).
Table 1. Details of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models
No. Model Institution Ocean modules Ocean resolution 1 CAMS-CSM1-0 BCC-CAMS/China MOM4 200×320 2 CanESM5 CCCMA/Canada NEMO3.4.1 290×361 3 CAS-ESM2-0 CAS/China LICOM2.0 196×362 4 CESM2 NCAR/USA POP2 384×320 5 CESM2-FV2 NCAR/USA POP2 384×320 6 CESM2-WACCM NCAR/USA POP2 384×320 7 CESM2-WACCM-FV2 NCAR/USA POP2 384×320 8 CIESM THU/China CIESM-OM 560×720 9 E3SM-1-0 LLNL/USA MPAS-Oceanv6.0 235 160 cells and 714 274 edges 10 E3SM-1-1 LLNL/USA MPAS-Oceanv6.0 235 160 cells and 714 274 edges 11 EC-Earth3-Veg AEMET/Spain NEMO3.6 292×362 12 FGOALS-f3-L CAS/China LICOM3.0 218×360 13 FGOALS-g3 CAS/China LICOM3.0 218×360 14 FIO-ESM-2-0 FIO-QNLM/China POP2-W 384×320 15 GISS-E2-1-G GISS/USA GISS Ocean 180×360 16 IPSL-CM6A-LR IPSL/France NMEO-OPA 332×362 17 MCM-UA-1-0 UA/USA MOM1.0 80×192 18 MPI-ESM1-2-LR MPI-M/Germany MPIOM1.63 220×256 19 NESM3 NUIST/China NEMOv3.4 362×384 20 NorESM2-LM NCC/Norway MICOM 384×360 21 SAM0-UNICON SNU/Korea POP2 384×320 
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