Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China

Wen Yang; Wenjia Hu; Bin Chen; Hongjian Tan; Shangke Su; Like Ding; Peng Dong; Weiwei Yu; Jianguo Du

doi:10.1007/s13131-022-2053-x

Volume 42 Issue 4

Apr. 2023

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Wen Yang, Wenjia Hu, Bin Chen, Hongjian Tan, Shangke Su, Like Ding, Peng Dong, Weiwei Yu, Jianguo Du. Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2023, 42(4): 59-71. doi: 10.1007/s13131-022-2053-x

Citation:

Wen Yang, Wenjia Hu, Bin Chen, Hongjian Tan, Shangke Su, Like Ding, Peng Dong, Weiwei Yu, Jianguo Du. Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2023, 42(4): 59-71. doi: 10.1007/s13131-022-2053-x

Citation:

Wen Yang, Wenjia Hu, Bin Chen, Hongjian Tan, Shangke Su, Like Ding, Peng Dong, Weiwei Yu, Jianguo Du. Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2023, 42(4): 59-71. doi: 10.1007/s13131-022-2053-x

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Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China

doi: 10.1007/s13131-022-2053-x

Wen Yang^{1, 2},
Wenjia Hu^{1, 3, 4},
Bin Chen^{1, 3, 4},
Hongjian Tan¹,
Shangke Su¹,
Like Ding^{1, 2},
Peng Dong⁵,
Weiwei Yu^{1, 3, 4},
Jianguo Du^{1, 3, 4
,
,}

1.
Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China
2.
College of Marine Science, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China
4.
Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Xiamen 361005, China
5.
Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China

Funds: The Xiamen Youth Innovation Fund under contract No. 3502Z20206096; the National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No. 2019YFE0124700; the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42176153, 41906127, and 42076163; the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction under contract No. HR01-200701.

More Information

Corresponding author: dujianguo@tio.org.cn
Received Date: 2022-03-30
Accepted Date: 2022-06-08

Available Online: 2023-02-01

Publish Date: 2023-04-25

Abstract

Abstract

Climate change has affected and will continue to affect the spatial distribution patterns of marine organisms. To understand the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns and species richness of the Sciaenidae in China’s coastal waters, the maximum entropy model was used to combine six environmental factors and predict the potential distribution of 12 major species of Sciaenidae by 2050s under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. The results showed that the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.917, indicating that the model predictions were accurate and reliable. The main driving factors affecting the potential distribution of these fishes were dissolved oxygen, salinity, and sea surface temperature (SST). There was an overall northward shift in the potential habitat areas of these fishes under the two climate scenarios. The total potential habitat areas of Larimichthys polyactis, Pennahia argentata, and Pennahia pawak decreased under both climate scenarios, while the total habitat area of Johnius belengerii, Pennahia anea, Miichthys miiuy, Collichthys lucidus, and Collichthys niveatus increased, suggesting that these might be loser and winner species, respectively. The expansion rate, contraction rate, degree of centroid change, and species richness in the potential habitats were generally more significant under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. The mean shift rates of the potential distribution were 41.50 km/(10 a) and 29.20 km/(10 a) under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The changes in Sciaenidae species richness under climate change were bounded by the Changjiang River Estuary waters, with obvious north-south differences. Some waters with increased species richness may become refuges for Sciaenidae fishes under climate change. The richness and habitat area change rate of some aquatic germplasm resources will decrease, meanings that these reserves are more sensitive to climate change, and more attention should be paid to the potential challenges and opportunities for fishery managers. This study may provide a scientific basis for the management and conservation of Sciaenidae in China under climate change.
- climate change,
- Sciaenidae,
- potential distribution,
- species richness,
- habitat

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References(72)

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